Yair Assaf-Shapira

In 2009, the demographic makeup of Jerusalem’s outmigration was as follows: 25% were children under the age of 15, 41% were young adults between the ages of 15 and 29, another 30% were adults between the ages of 30 and 64 and 4% were seniors over the age of 65. Jerusalem’s incoming migration was basically a mirror picture of Jerusalem’s outgoing migration, although it is true that more families and more adults migrated out of Jerusalem than into it.

Individuals tend to relocate in response to pivotal life-events, whether the birth of a child or once a child has reached school age. Many of those who leave Jerusalem relocate to localities in the surrounding area, which can be grouped into different categorizes by the particular demographic populations they draw.

Beitar Illit and Modiin Illit basically only draw Ultra-Orthodox population, mostly young families. Young adults between the ages of 15 and 29 made up the bulk of incomers to Beitar Illit and Modiin Illit, between 47% and 54%; children under the age of 15 accounted for 34%-40%, adults between the ages 30-64 accounted for 11%-12% and seniors over the age of 65 accounted for only 1%.

Beit Shemesh, another major destination for ex-Jerusalemites, draws a more mixed population that includes Ultra-Orthodox groups as well as others. Adults between the ages of 30 and 64 accounted for 23% of incomers to Beit Shemesh, and young adults between the ages 15-29 account for another 35%. Like other major destinations for the Ultra-Orthodox population, the percentage of children entering the city approximated 40%.

The picture in Maale Adummim, Modiin and Mevaseret Zion was somewhat different. Children under 15 accounted for 25% to 29% of incomers to these localities and seniors over the age of 65 accounted for 4%-5%. The percentage of incoming adults between the ages of 30-64 was higher in Modiin (45%) and Mevaseret Zion (41%) than Maale Adummim (34%).